Simulation and Prediction of South Asian Climate using Dynamical Models

This talk will briefly summarize future climate change scenarios and dynamical seasonal prediction over South Asia. Experiments using Regional Climate Models (RCMs) will be used to discuss model validation and future projections of temperature and precipitation. The importance of dynamical downscaling will be highlighted by comparing results from Global Climate Models (GCMs) and RCMs. The second part of the talk will focus on seasonal prediction of the South Asian Monsoon (SAM). Simulations of SAM, in coupled and uncoupled GCMs, will be compared to address model improvements and deficiencies in reproducing the Monsoon, followed by the discussion of the optimum initialization strategy and its implementation in GCMs. The deterministic skill of the SAM forecast with and without optimum initialization will be compared and the significance of optimum perturbation and its growth will be discussed.