Forest Impacts: Projected Changes in Climatic Suitability for Douglas-fir and Spruce Forests in British Columbia.
Introduction:
The impact of projected climate change on spruce and Douglas-fir forests in British Columbia has been assessed using bioclimatic envelope models. Present and future climatic suitability has been modelled for Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii), hybrid spruce (Picea engelmannii x glauca), and white spruce (Picea glauca). Bioclimatic envelope models use historical climate data to define the climatic envelopes that control a species' spatial distribution. In this study, a correlative modelling technique based on principal component analysis was employed to determine climatic suitability at a resolution of 600 metres throughout British Columbia. The models were developed using elevation-adjusted interpolated records of the 1961-1990 climate normals. Future suitability was modelled using climate data from five different projections derived from four GCMs under three emissions scenarios. Predicted suitability maps were produced for 30-year time-slices centred on 2020, 2050, and 2080. The results were compared across the province to quantify the variability between projections and to assess the range of predicted suitability distributions. As expected, all projections indicate a rapid shift in suitability for both spruce and Douglas fir to higher elevations and latitudes than their current range. However, significant differences exist between the projections with regard to the pace, extent and fine-scale details of these changes.
Maps of modelled climatic suitability for spruce in British Columbia
Maps of modelled climatic suitability for Douglas-fir in British Columbia
Maps of projected changes in risk of outbreaks of Western Spruce Budworm in British Columbia
Maps of projected changes in risk of outbreaks of Spruce Bark Beetles in British Columbia
Project Reports:
- Final Technical Report: Forest Science Program Project, April 2009
- Related PCIC Report: Summary of Forest Pest and Climate Change Symposium: 14-15 October 2007, February 2008
- Related article: Climate change becomes a priority: Development and analysis of forest health databases, models, and economic impacts for BC: Spruce bark beetle and spruce; western spruce budworm and Douglas-fir in Link (Linking Innovations & Networking Knowledge) Winter 2008 Volume 9 Issue 3, pp 6-7. External website.
- Related report: Wilson and Hebda, 2008: Mitigating and adapting to climate change through the conservation of nature External PDF.
- Related report: Flower, A. and T. Murdock, 2008. Symposium addresses science of researching forest pests, climate change. Link, FORREX Forum for Research and Extension in Natural Resources, Vol. 10, No. 3. External website.
