Providing Regional Climate Services to British Columbia

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New Publications: Two Papers Examining the Impacts of Climate Change on BC's Forests, in Environmental Science & Policy

PCIC researchers have recently contributed to two articles examining the impacts of a changing climate on BC's forests, in the journal Environmental Science & Policy.

The first paper (Flower et al., 2013) used downscaled climate data from global climate models, subject to three different emissions scenarios, to examine the effect of projected climate change on the distribution of Douglas Fir and three types of spruce. The authors found that, though there were differences between the projections, all of the projections indicated a shift in suitable locations for these trees to higher latitudes and elevations, relative to their present range.

The second paper (Murdock et al., 2013) examined the risks to forests from western spruce budworm and spruce bark beetle outbreaks under two different climate scenarios, as well as the potential effects on timber production in the Okanagan Timber Supply Area and at the provincial scale. The authors found little net impact on production at the provincial level, but negative effects on the Okanagan Timber Supply Area for both climate scenarios. The authors provide policy implications as well as guidance for future work on the distribution and abundance of forest resources.

Flower, A. (PCIC), T. Q. Murdock (PCIC), S. W. Taylor and F. W. Zwiers (PCIC), 2013: Using an ensemble of downscaled climate model projections to assess impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of spruce and Douglas-fir forests in British Columbia. Environmental Science & Policy, 26, 63–74,doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2012.07.024. <>

Murdock, T. Q. (PCIC), S. W. Taylor, A. Flower (PCIC), A. Mehlenbacher (PCIC), A. Montenegro (PCIC), F. W. Zwiers (PCIC), R. Alfaro and D. L. Spittlehouse, 2012: Pest outbreak distribution and forest management impacts in a changing climate in British Columbia. Environmental Science & Policy, 26, 75–89, doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2012.07.026. <>