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  • Authors: The BC Agriculture & Food Climate Action Initiative Publication Date: Aug 2019

    Bulkley-Nechako & Fraser-Fort George Adaptation Strategies plan is the eighth regional plan developed as part of the Regional Adaptation Program delivered by the BC Agriculture & Food Climate Action Initiative. The report contains a distinctive set of local sector impacts and priorities, as well as a series of strategies and actions for adapting and strengthening resilience. The plans are intended to offer clear actions suited to the specifics of the local context, both with respect to anticipated changes and local capacity and assets.

  • Authors: The Fraser Basin Council Publication Date: Aug 2019

    Climate change is challenging industry and communities across the Northeast region of the province. Wildfires, hail storms, and floods have already challenged local infrastructure and posed health risks to communities. Projected climate change for the region includes increases in frequency and intensity of extremes. Ensuring the region is as prepared as possible for future climate events is critical to maintaining a thriving community, robust natural environment, and vibrant economy. As prepared as possible means the region understands how the climate is changing, and is working together to increase resiliency, and to improve natural and physical infrastructure. Early efforts will reduce the reliance on emergency management and support the ability to thrive over time. Local governments in the region are taking a proactive approach to understanding how climate change will pose risks to Northeast communities and are planning together to build resiliency across the region.

    This document is intended to offer science-based information on how the Northeast’s climate is changing and expected to change over the 21st century. Designing to current and future climate parameters is anticipated to be markedly more cost effective than reacting to climate shocks and stresses over time. In the report, climate projections for the 2020s are offered to represent current climate conditions; projections for the 2050s illustrate the trajectory of change regardless of global emissions reductions; and projections for the 2080s illustrate our likely “business as usual” future climate scenario by late century. The 2020s projections are useful as they more accurately depict the current state of climate than historical observed baseline data. The 2050s projections are useful for medium-term planning and infrastructure purposes, while the 2080s provide guidance for long-term infrastructure decisions.

  • Authors: The BC Agriculture & Food Climate Action Initiative Publication Date: Jul 2019

    The Kootenay & Boundary Regional Adaptation Strategies plan is the seventh regional plan developed as part of the Regional Adaptation Program delivered by the BC Agriculture & Food Climate Action Initiative. The report contains a distinctive set of local sector impacts and priorities, as well as a series of strategies and actions for adapting and strengthening resilience. The plans are intended to offer clear actions suited to the specifics of the local context, both with respect to anticipated changes and local capacity and assets.

  • Authors: Murdock, T. Publication Date: Jun 2019

    Presentation for the Private Forest Landowners Association Annual Conference.

  • Source Publication: Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2019GL082908. Authors: Li, C., F. Zwiers, X. Zhang, G. Chen, J. Lu, G. Li, J. Norris, Y. Tan, Y. Sun and M. Liu Publication Date: Jun 2019

    Climate models project that extreme precipitation events will intensify in proportion to their intensity during the 21st century at large spatial scales. The identification of the causes of this phenomenon nevertheless remains tenuous. Using a large ensemble of North American regional climate simulations, we show that the more rapid intensification of more extreme events also appears as a robust feature at finer regional scales. The larger increases in more extreme events than in less extreme events are found to be primarily due to atmospheric circulation changes. Thermodynamically induced changes have relatively uniform effects across extreme events and regions. In contrast, circulation changes weaken moderate events over western interior regions of North America, and enhance them elsewhere. The weakening effect decreases and even reverses for more extreme events, whereas there is further intensification over other parts of North America, creating an “intense gets intenser” pattern over most of the continent.

  • Authors: The Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium Publication Date: Jun 2019

    PCIC's June 2019 newsletter covers the following stories: the Climate Report for Vancouver Coastal Health, the Regional Assessment for Northeastern BC and PCIC's Co-Produced report on the Cowichan Valley featured in the media. The newsletter also contains a staff profile on Dr. Whitney Huang, covers Dr. William Hsieh's lecture for the Pacific Climate Seminar Series and includes a story on the most recent Science Brief, on temperature and precipitation indices for Canada, in addition to staff changes and PCIC's peer-reviewed publications.

  • Authors: The Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium Publication Date: Jun 2019

    As Canada's climate continues to change, trends in mean temperature and precipitation are evident, but so to are trends in indices based on temperature and precipitation observations. These are of interest to a wide range of sectors and this Science Brief covers a recent paper on changes to these indices in Canada.

  • Authors: Lower Mainland Facilities Management, Pinna Sustainability, The Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium Publication Date: May 2019

    Rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events are already affecting Vancouver Coastal Health (VCH) and our Communities of Care. Chronic stresses and acute shocks are creating a “new climate reality” for health facilities and service delivery, and reshaping our working context.

    With this series of reports, Lower Mainland Facilities Management (LMFM) demonstrates forward-thinking public sector leadership; positions health authorities to meet legislated requirements for addressing climate risk and reducing emissions; and, enables major infrastructure projects to assess climate resilience.

  • Source Publication: Journal of Climate, early online access, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18- 0461.1. Authors: Seiler, C., Publication Date: Apr 2019

    Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are known to intensify due to three vertically interacting positive potential vorticity perturbations that are associated with potential temperature anomalies close to the surface (θB), condensational heating in the lower-level atmosphere (qsat), and stratospheric intrusion in the upper-level atmosphere (qtr). This study presents the first climatological assessment of how much each of these three mechanisms contributes to the intensity of extreme ETCs. Using relative vorticity at 850 hPa as a measure of ETC intensity, results show that in about half of all cases the largest contributions during maximum ETC intensity are associated with qsat (53% of all ETCs), followed by qtr (36%) and θB (11%). The relative frequency of storms that are dominated by qsat is higher 1) during warmer months (61% of all ETCs during warmer months) compared to colder months (50%) and 2) in the Pacific (56% of all ETCs in the Pacific) compared to the Atlantic (46%). The relative frequency of ETCs that are dominated by θB is larger 1) during colder months (13%) compared to warmer months (3%), 2) in the Atlantic (15%) compared to the Pacific (8%), and 3) in western (11%–20%) compared to eastern ocean basins (4%–9%). These findings are based on piecewise potential vorticity inversion conducted for intense ETCs that occurred from 1980 to 2016 in the Northern Hemisphere (3273 events; top 7%). The results may serve as a baseline for evaluating ETC biases and uncertainties in global climate models.

  • Authors: British Columbia Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Strategy Publication Date: Apr 2019

    A forward-thinking group at Nanaimo Hospital developed a comprehensive climate risk assessment matrix which is becoming an integral part of their organizational decision-making. Future hospital retrofits will potentially include increased cooling capacity, enhanced air filtration, and other measures to reduce costs, greenhouse gas emissions, and protect the facility and its patients from the potential effects of climate change.

  • Source Publication: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11, 5, doi:10.1029/2018MS001532. Authors: He. Y., N. McFarlane and A. H. Monahan Publication Date: Mar 2019

    This paper presents a new mathematical formulation to account for the effects turbulent motions in comprehensive global climate models. The new formulation is based on recently published theoretical advances and results of high‐resolution numerical model simulations for specialized atmospheric turbulence regimes. The new formulation is tested and evaluated using a simplified model configuration designed to represent a single grid volume of a global climate model.

  • Authors: The Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium Publication Date: Mar 2019

    This edition of the PCIC Update covers work on modelling Fraser River streamflow temperatures, recently published wildfire research, the release of the PCIC Climate Explorer tool (PCEX), a new collaboration between the Canadian Centre for Climate Services and PCIC, recent research in precipitation extremes, work on incorporating the findings of climate science into engineering design, a staff profile on Yaqiong Wang, the release of the 2017-2018 Corporate Report, as well as the latest Science Brief, staff changes, recent publications and the ongoing Pacific Climate Seminar Series.

  • Authors: The Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium Publication Date: Feb 2019

    Real-time precipitation data can be of use to areas ranging from forecasting to forest fire management. This Science Brief covers a recent paper that examines the past ten years of a near real-time Canadian precipitation product.

    Writing in Atmosphere-Ocean, Fortin et al. (2018) examine the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA), a near real-time precipitation product covering all of North America that is produced by Environment and Climate Change Canada. They review papers that evaluate CaPA compared to precipitation observations as well as the applications of CaPA for various types of research, ranging from hydrology1 and hydrometeorology2 to biogeophysics3. They find that CaPA compares favourably against other precipitation data, and report that it has been used successfully in studies across a number of fields, including hydrometeorology, hydrology, land surface and atmospheric modelling.

  • Source Publication: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, 811-828, doi:10.5194/hess-23-811-2019. Authors: Islam, S. Ul, C.L. Curry, S.J. Dery and F.W. Zwiers Publication Date: Feb 2019

    In response to ongoing and future-projected global warming, mid-latitude, nival river basins are expected to transition from a snowmelt-dominated flow regime to a nival–pluvial one with an earlier spring freshet of reduced magnitude. There is, however, a rich variation in responses that depends on factors such as the topographic complexity of the basin and the strength of maritime influences. We illustrate the potential effects of a strong maritime influence by studying future changes in cold season flow variability in the Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia, a large extratropical watershed extending from the Rocky Mountains to the Pacific Coast. We use a process-based hydrological model driven by an ensemble of 21 statistically downscaled simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), following the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5).

    Warming under RCP 8.5 leads to reduced winter snowfall, shortening the average snow accumulation season by about one-third. Despite this, large increases in cold season rainfall lead to unprecedented cold season peak flows and increased overall runoff variability in the VIC simulations. Increased cold season rainfall is shown to be the dominant climatic driver in the Coast Mountains, contributing 60 % to mean cold season runoff changes in the 2080s. Cold season runoff at the outlet of the basin increases by 70 % by the 2080s, and its interannual variability more than doubles when compared to the 1990s, suggesting substantial challenges for operational flow forecasting in the region. Furthermore, almost half of the basin (45 %) transitions from a snow-dominated runoff regime in the 1990s to a primarily rain-dominated regime in the 2080s, according to a snowmelt pulse detection algorithm. While these projections are consistent with the anticipated transition from a nival to a nival–pluvial hydrologic regime, the marked increase in FRB cold season runoff is likely linked to more frequent landfalling atmospheric rivers in the region projected in the CMIP5 models, providing insights for other maritime-influenced extratropical basins.

  • Source Publication: Nature Scientific Data, 6, 180299, doi:10.1038/sdata.2018.299. Authors: Werner, A.T., R.R. Shrestha, A.J. Cannon, M.S. Schnorbus, F.W. Zwiers, G. Dayon and F. Anslow Publication Date: Jan 2019

    We describe a spatially contiguous, temporally consistent high-resolution gridded daily meteorological dataset for northwestern North America. This >4 million km2 region has high topographic relief, seasonal snowpack, permafrost and glaciers, crosses multiple jurisdictional boundaries and contains the entire Yukon, Mackenzie, Saskatchewan, Fraser and Columbia drainages. We interpolate daily station data to 1/16° spatial resolution using a high-resolution monthly 1971–2000 climatology as a predictor in a thin-plate spline interpolating algorithm. Only temporally consistent climate stations with at least 40 years of record are included. Our approach is designed to produce a dataset well suited for driving hydrological models and training statistical downscaling schemes. We compare our results to two commonly used datasets and show improved performance for climate means, extremes and variability. When used to drive a hydrologic model, our dataset also outperforms these datasets for runoff ratios and streamflow trends in several, high elevation, sub-basins of the Fraser River.

  • Source Publication: Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 1651-1661, doi:10.1029/2018GL080720. Authors: Curry, C.L., S.U. Islam, F.W. Zwiers and S.J. Dery Publication Date: Jan 2019

    Snow‐dominated watersheds are bellwethers of climate change. Hydroclimate projections in such basins often find reductions in annual peak runoff due to decreased snowpack under global warming. British Columbia's Fraser River Basin (FRB) is a large, nival basin with exposure to moisture‐laden atmospheric rivers originating in the Pacific Ocean. Landfalling atmospheric rivers over the region in winter are projected to increase in both strength and frequency in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models. We investigate future changes in hydrology and annual peak daily streamflow in the FRB using a hydrologic model driven by a bias‐corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (8.5), the FRB evolves toward a nival‐pluvial regime featuring an increasing association of extreme rainfall with annual peak daily flow, a doubling in cold season peak discharge, and a decrease in the return period of the largest historical flow, from a 1‐in‐200‐year to 1‐in‐50‐year event by the late 21st century.

  • Source Publication: Earth's Future, doi:10.1029/2018EF001001. Authors: Li, C., F.W. Zwiers, X. Zhang and G. Li Publication Date: Jan 2019

    Global warming is expected to increase the amount of atmospheric moisture, resulting in heavier extreme precipitation. Various studies have used the historical relationship between extreme precipitation and temperature (temperature scaling) to provide guidance about precipitation extremes in a future warmer climate. Here we assess how much information is required to robustly identify temperature scaling relationships, and whether these relationships are equally effective at different times in the future in estimating precipitation extremes everywhere across North America. Using a large ensemble of 35 North American regional climate simulations of the period 1951–2100, we show that individual climate simulations of length comparable to that of typical instrumental records are unable to constrain temperature scaling relationships well enough to reliably estimate future extremes of local precipitation accumulation for hourly to daily durations in the model's climate. Hence, temperature scaling relationships estimated from the limited historical observations are unlikely to be able to provide reliable guidance for future adaptation planning at local spatial scales. In contrast, well‐constrained temperature scaling relations based on multiple regional climate simulations do provide a feasible basis for accurately projecting precipitation extremes of hourly to daily durations in different future periods over more than 90% of the North American land area.

  • Source Publication: Hydrological Processes, doi: 10.1002/hyp.13321. Authors: Tsuruta, K., M.A. Hassan, S.D. Donner and Y. Alila, Publication Date: Jan 2019

    Future sediment dynamics may be affected by changing climates or hydrological regimes because of the close link between hydrology and sediment erosion, deposition, and transport. Previously, investigations of these potential changes have been constrained by a combination of limited observational data, hydrological drivers, and appropriate mechanistic models. Additionally, there is often ambiguity regarding how to disentangle the impacts of climate and hydrology from direct human factors such as reservoirs and land‐use change, which often exert more control over sediment dynamics. In this study, we utilize a recently developed, large‐scale, distributed, mechanistic sediment transport model to project future sediment erosion, deposition, and transportation within the Fraser River Basin in British Columbia, Canada—a basin with historical water flux and sediment load observations and limited anthropogenic influences upstream of its delta. The sediment model is driven by synthetic land‐surface hydrology derived from Scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, which were provided by the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium. Resulting simulations of water flux and sediment load from 1965 to 1994 are first validated against observational data then compared with future projections. Future projections show an overall increase in annual hillslope erosion and in‐channel transportation, a shift towards earlier spring peak erosion and transportation, and longer persistence of the sediment signal through the year. These shifts in timing and annual yield may have deleterious effects on spawning sockeye salmon and are insufficient to counteract future coastal retreat caused by sea‐level rise.

  • Source Publication: Earth's Future, doi:10.1029/2018EF001050. Authors: M.C. Kirchmeier‐Young N.P. Gillett F.W. Zwiers A.J. Cannon F.S. Anslow Publication Date: Dec 2018

    A record 1.2 million ha burned in British Columbia, Canada's extreme wildfire season of 2017. Key factors in this unprecedented event were the extreme warm and dry conditions that prevailed at the time, which are also reflected in extreme fire weather and behavior metrics. Using an event attribution method and a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations, we show that the risk factors affecting the event, and the area burned itself, were made substantially greater by anthropogenic climate change. We show over 95% of the probability for the observed maximum temperature anomalies is due to anthropogenic factors, that the event's high fire weather/behavior metrics were made 2–4 times more likely, and that anthropogenic climate change increased the area burned by a factor of 7–11. This profound influence of climate change on forest fire extremes in British Columbia, which is likely reflected in other regions and expected to intensify in the future, will require increasing attention in forest management, public health, and infrastructure.

  • Authors: The Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium Publication Date: Dec 2018

    This is the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium's 2017-2018 Corporate Report.

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